Military

North (assessed Russian Federation Armed Forces (RFAF) Main Effort). 

• Ukrainian armed forces (UAF) recaptured Irpin, documented across social media and news channels. UAF reported to be conducting deliberate clearance operations following RFAF retreat.
• Unconfirmed reporting that UAF are pushing west along the E40/M06 route, following Irpin success. Towns reported to include Lisne, Dmytrivka, and Motyzhyn – towards Makariv.
• No RFAF offensive operations reported to the north-west of Kyiv; limited RFAF operations in the vicinity of Brovary to the east. However, these attacks were repelled by the UAF.
• Heavy bombardment of Kyiv and its suburbs continues, resulting in power blackouts across some of its western districts.
• Fires reported at Hostomel airport, the cause and level of damage are unknown.
• Artillery shelling also reported in towns/villages along the T1012 route, including Vyshneve.
• RFAF reported to have destroyed several bridges in Chernihiv region.
• Several missile strikes reported in Zhytomyr region.

Unconfirmed reporting on UAF progress following lrpin liberation. Source: @mhmck

Northeast

• No offensive RFAF operations observed in Sumy region in the past 24-hours.
• Kharkiv remains under heavy RFAF bombardment.
• In the wider Kharkiv region, UAF claim it now controls Kamyanka and Topolske relieving pressure on its positions in Izyum.
• UAF conducted stabilisation operation near Chuhuiv, situated on the M03 route, approximately 10km south-east of Kharkiv.

East

• Ukrainian officials reported that RFAF are regrouping ahead of resuming large-scale operations to seize all territory across Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
• RFAF activity across Donetsk and Luhansk continues to be focussed on Popasna, and Rubizhne; however, no gains were made in the past 24-hours.
• RFAF failed in their attempt to break through Ukrainian lines at Vuhledar and Solodke, whilst continuing to bombard UAF positions in Marinka.

South

• UAF control of Mariupol continues to slowly recede, with reports suggesting that RFAF advanced up to a townhall location in Kalmiuskyi district. 
• Heavy bombardment also continues to be reported across remaining areas in UAF control in Mariupol.
• Humanitarian corridors opened in Mariupol - 3,000 civilians reported to have been evacuated from Berdyansk to Zaporizhia (including Mariupol citizens in this figure).
• Limited RFAF offensive activity noted towards Zaporizhia.
• Ukrainian officials report that UAF pushed RFAF back to 60km from Kryvyi Rih, whilst RFAF reinforce its defensive positions near Mykolaiv.
• Public resistance continues to be noted in Kherson city, as pressure on RFAF increases. Protests also reported in Berdyansk.

Post highlighting Ukrainian news article which suggests that RFAF have had to withdraw up to 60km from Kryvyi Rih frontline. Source: @hwag_ucmc

Strategic/Political

• Media reporting is focussed on the resumption of peace talks in Istanbul. According to some outlets, Russia is willing to entertain the notion of Ukraine joining the European Union (EU), if it is not militarily aligned. Also, the Kremlin is reported to have dropped its ‘denazification’ demand. Despite this, several red lines remain, as Ukrainian officials stated that it is not willing to cede territory or sovereignty to Russia.
• RFAF targeted a fuel depot in Rivne, north-east of Lviv. This follows reports of strikes targeting fuel depots in Lutsk and Lviv over the last few days.
• Western intelligence agencies have reported that the Russian private military company, Wagner Group, will be deployed to eastern Ukraine. More than 1,000 mercenaries are expected to deploy, with officials suggesting that due to RFAF losses, Wagner’s Ukraine deployment supersedes its other commitments in Africa and the Middle East.

News report highlighting the deployment of Wagner Group into Ukraine. Source: @Newsweek

So what?

• The liberation of Irpin is a notable success for the UAF, illustrating the stark contrast in morale, operational momentum, and logistical capability compared to its RFAF adversaries. Operational momentum is not only important to place an adversary under increasing military pressure, it can also act as a soft power lever for Ukrainian officials engaged in peace talks. However, Russia is unlikely to present, or entertain any substantial proposals until its military position is solidified and improves its bargaining position.
• The deployment of Wagner Group personnel shows that RFAF are becoming increasingly stretched across multiple axes. Wagner Group’s deployment to the East axis will provide the RFAF with a force multiplier to be able to increase its rate of advance in the Donbass region over the next few weeks but doesn’t necessarily address the logistical concerns which have been evident throughout the invasion.

What next?

The RFAF main effort will likely continue to be consolidation on the North axis, positional reinforcement, and bombardment of both UAF and civilian targets. This lack of RFAF offensive ground operations will provide the UAF with short-term opportunities to advance towards Bucha, Hostomel, and Makraiv. In the northeast, Izyum is likely to remain a key focus for RFAF in the next 48-hours, as it counters reported UAF successes to the south of the city. On the eastern axis, further operations are expected in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions. RFAF offensive activity is highly likely to continue in Mariupol city, continuing its urban clearance, where gains are expected in the next 72-hours. Further along the southern axis, RFAF will continue to focus on probing UAF positions near Mykolaiv, and Kryvyi Rih, supported by artillery, until reinforcements can arrive from other axes.