Military

North (assessed Russian Federation Armed Forces (RFAF) Main Effort).

• There have been no notable changes to tactical dispositions in and around Kyiv.
• Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) conducted several successful defensive operations in Guta-Mezhyhirska, Lyutyszh, and Makariv. Nearby towns of Lypivka and Sloboda are reported to remain contested.
• No offensive RFAF operations were observed north-east of Kyiv, as reporting continues to indicate that RFAF are prioritising logistical reinforcement ahead of a future assault on Kyiv.
• RFAF continue to clash with UAF in Bucha, Irpin, Stoyanka and Vorzel.
• RFAF reported to have detained six employees of the Bucha City Council.

Northeast.

• No notable changes in the past 24-hours.
• UAF reported to have repelled RFAF advances on the outskirts of Sumy. UAF also reported to have conducted defensive operations in Oleshnya, near the Belarusian border.
• Reporting indicates that RFAF continue to prioritize resupply operations and redirection of forces in preparation for possible offensive operations against Brovary.
• RFAF continue to target civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv.
• RFAF did not gain any ground on Kyiv’s eastern axis.

East.

• RFAF artillery continues to target residential neighbourhoods in Kharkiv, as UAF repelled RFAF attacks on the outskirts of the city.
• UAF reported that it had defended positions in Mariupol from significant RFAF assaults to the east and west of the city. RFAF also continues to bombard civilian infrastructure.
• Reporting indicates that RFAF took 400 - 500 patients’ hostage at the Mariupol Regional Intensive Care Hospital, using the position to conduct artillery strikes. Unconfirmed reporting has indicated that RFAF will shoot anyone who attempts to leave the building.
• Ukrainian officials reported that up to 20,000 Mariupol residents utilised the opening of a humanitarian corridor, arriving in Zaporizhia throughout the last 24-hours.
• UAF continues to defend the southern portion of Izyum. Bridges in the city are reported to have been destroyed, which is limiting any RFAF advance over the Donets River. Reporting also indicates that RFAF operations have been paused, due to ammunition shortages.
• In Luhansk province, UAF officials stated that RFAF continue to reinforce its positions on the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk, whilst continuing to bombard the city with artillery.
• In Donetsk province, activity continues to be observed near Horlivka and Avdiivka.

South.

• No notable changes to the current situation in Kherson, with limited advances observed to the north-east of the city. UAF targeted RFAF positions at Kherson Airport, destroying several rotary aircraft.
• RFAF advances towards Kryvyi Rih continue to be paused.
• RFAF missile strikes are reported to target Odessa, with 14 RFAF vessels now reported to have manoeuvred off the Black Sea coastline. One vessel includes several landing ships.
• Groups of internally displaced persons (IDPs) continue to arrive in Zaporizhia. However, some reports suggest that a vehicle convoy was obstructed by RFAF for several hours (including overnight) before being allowed to continue its journey.

Strategic/Political

Former head of MI6, Sir Alex Younger, commented to a radio broadcaster that China’s President, Xi Jinping, is the only world leader who can assert influence over Vladimir Putin. Younger also commented that China carries a “huge reputational risk” if it continues to ally itself to Russia.

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, commented that Ukraine may not be able to join NATO, in an apparent concession to several world leaders during a recent video call. Zelenskyy also added that talks with Russia had become more constructive in recent days, sentiment which has been echoed by Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

A commission of the politicians from Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia travelled to Kyiv to demonstrate their support – as representatives of the European Council – to Ukraine and outline a support package which will be made available.

Echoing concerns from NATO leaders, Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, stated that he believes Russia will manufacture a pretext to justify the use of chemical weapons (CW) in Ukraine.

Former US Army chief, Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, published his perspective on the current trajectory of the Ukrainian invasion, stating that the next 10-days will determine the outcome of the conflict. Hodges highlighted that RFAF were facing several challenges: logistics, personnel, and command and control. Considering this, Hodges believes that support must be accelerated to enable Ukraine to benefit from this drop in RFAF operational momentum.

So What?

As the operational pause extends, it places the RFAF in an increasingly difficult position. Whilst they can consolidate gains and use stand-off tactics to pressure the UAF and conduct resupply operations, the RFAF will continue to lose operational momentum. Doctrinally, this is crucial to achieving long-term tactical success.

The threat of CW entering the battlespace is likely to endure in the medium term, especially if RFAF advances continue to stall. NATO’s approach to use the media to highlight Russian tactics and undermine the credibility of its operations is becoming standard practice. The objective of this is to dissuade Russia from taking this escalatory step. However, whilst it educates a Western audience on the possible projection of the conflict, it is unlikely to influence Putin’s decision-making on the use of CW moving forward. The use of hostages, bombardment of civilian targets, and dangerous execution of operations near nuclear facilities is a more lucid indicator of Russia’s willingness to consider using CW; however, it appears unlikely at this stage.

The second successful day of humanitarian corridors is a positive to be drawn from an increasingly bleak situation in Mariupol, Sumy, and other besieged locations. The safe extraction of Ukrainian citizens is imperative until there is a cessation of hostilities. However, reports of RFAF blocking convoys remains a long-term concern and indicates that the RFAF can continue to use Ukrainian citizens as pawns to achieve wider operational objectives. Consequently, more work is required in the diplomatic channels to create a more robust, reliable solution to ensuring that human casualties are reduced to a minimum.

What Next?

Large-scale offensive activity to complete the encirclement of Kyiv is looking increasingly unlikely in the next 48-72 hours. Tactical assaults at the current line of control to test UAF defensive positions are almost certain, with RFAF bombardment of major urban centres to continue to maintain pressure on UAF locations. This will exacerbate the humanitarian situation across besieged locations, with further humanitarian corridors likely to be agreed in the coming days. UAF elements will continue to look to disrupt RFAF advances along the main axes of advance towards Kyiv, especially along the north-east axis where there is an increasing body of reporting to suggest that RFAF supply lines are exposed. Tactical withdrawals at this stage would further reduce operational momentum and set-back RFAF plans to encircle Kyiv. Indicators from wider reporting suggests that RFAF might launch a limited offensive into Zaporizhia in the next 96-hours, supported by elements in Kherson and Kryvyi Rih. Initial probing attacks could be deployed to scope out UAF positions, whilst reinforcements arrive from Mariupol and the surrounding locality. In the same timeframe RFAF are likely to advance planning for operations in Odessa.